Latest issue of EXIM Hungary’s Export-Őr publication released: Domestic export performance may gradually improve from 2026 in line with increased external demand

According to EXIM Hungary’s latest professional publication, the global economy has proven to be more resilient than expected this year, and although US customs measures have brought new challenges, the pace of global growth has remained stable. Based on the IMF’s autumn forecast, global GDP could grow by 3.2 percent in 2025 and 3.1 percent in 2026, following a 3.3 percent increase in 2024. The Export-Őr publication highlights that the Hungarian economy is likely to grow by around 3 percent in both 2026 and 2027, driven by improving export market demand, manufacturing investments and a revival in consumer spending.

The goal of the biannual Export-Őr publication is to give a comprehensive picture of foreign economic processes, global economic trends and economic prospects relevant to Hungarian exporters. In the latest issue, analysts examine GDP growth prospects, the expected impact of the German economic stimulus package, the problem of global imbalances and developments in the domestic corporate credit market, among other topics.

Domestic growth may accelerate, export markets may gain momentum

According to the publication, the Hungarian economy may grow at a rate of around 3 percent in both 2026 and 2027, which may be supported by the continued surge in consumption and the gradual correction of corporate investments. In addition to the fruition of large-scale manufacturing projects, European economic stimulus packages could also significantly contribute to Hungarian export performance through improved external demand.

Government programs play a key role in stimulating the credit market in the current domestic interest rate environment, thanks to which the volume of new loan agreements by non-financial companies rose by 23% on an annual basis in January-September 2025. In this context, EXIM Hungary’s loan products available under the Sándor Demján Program accounted for 13% of the new corporate loan agreements.

“EXIM Hungary’s goal is to provide a predictable financing environment for domestic exporters with solutions that directly support the development of export capacities and sustainable growth. In response to strong market demand, we have therefore increased the total amount of our products announced under the Sándor Demján Program by HUF 100 billion to HUF 700 billion, which can be used by companies for investment and leasing purposes,” said Dr Adrienn Berta, CEO of EXIM Hungary.

A gradual recovery is also expected in Europe

The economic performance of the eurozone may show growth of over 1 percent in both 2025 and 2026. Although the trade agreement between the European Union and the United States means a higher tariff of 15 percent on most products exported to the US, the deal has helped to reduce trade policy uncertainty and to avoid the worst-case scenarios.

In the case of Germany, Hungary’s most important foreign trade partner, economic performance could grow by 0.2 percent in 2025 and 0.9 percent in 2026. The German government’s economic stimulus program, which aims to increase defence spending and boost infrastructure development, could increase German GDP by a total of around 0.8 percent in 2026–2027.

The ripple effect of the German economic stimulus package could boost external demand in the Central and Eastern European region, including the Hungarian economy: in the period 2026-2027, it could increase the GDP performance of the region and Hungary by a total of around 0.4 percent through direct and indirect channels combined. The Export-Őr report states that from 2026, the Hungarian economy could return to a balanced growth path supported by both internal and external demand.